Homelessness, as defined by Canadian Observatory on Homelessness (COH, formerly the Canadian Homelessness Research Network):

“describes the situation of an individual, family or community without stable, permanent, appropriate housing, or the immediate prospect, means and ability of acquiring it. It is the result of systemic or societal barriers, a lack of affordable and appropriate housing, the individual/household’s financial, mental, cognitive, behavioural or physical challenges, and/or racism and discrimination.”1

The consequences of homelessness, both to the person experiencing it and society at large are generally very negative (i.e. unsafe, stressful, huge negative health and economic impacts to the homeless individuals and the community they reside in).

The chronic lack of safe and affordable housing is largely the result of failed leadership at all government levels, as well as an unchecked (i.e. lack of effective regulations that protect renters from evictions) predatory housing and rental markets. Housing is first and foremost a basic human right. It needs to be first and foremost in the minds of our government leaders since we tax payers have entrusted them with managing our “purse strings” in a morally responsible manner. Whether we are homeless, at risk of being homeless, or facing housing insecurity (i.e. inflated rents, poorly maintained rental units), the overall impacts are the same - negative!

About DSOSO and Shelter Capacity

    Information in this report is based on Daily Shelter Overnight Service Occupancy (DSOSO) records that are available for download from the City of Toronto’s Open Data Portal. The data maintained here provides a brief glimpse of some basic demographic features of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Shelter population as well as the administrative details of the Shelter System (Table 1.).
    According to these records Funding Capacity refers to the “number of beds or rooms that a program is intended [funded] to provide”.2 Although there may be a number of reasons why beds or rooms may be temporarily out of service (e.g. repairs, renovations, outbreaks, or pest control) these reasons are not reported and therefore can not be verified (i.e. lacks transparency). The so called Actual Capacity refers to the “number of beds or rooms in service and showing as available for occupancy in the Shelter Management Information System at time of reporting.” This latter measure is touted as being “a more effective capacity measure to assess program occupancy rates”. Clearly the number of unavailable rooms or beds (Note: # UNAVAILABLE BEDS = Capacity Funding Bed - Capacity Actual Bed) represents the number of rooms/beds that the Service provider has been given funding for, but have decided not to use for unknown reasons (i.e. not reported).



TABLE 1. DSOSO DATA FEATURES
Term Definition
OCCUPANCY DATE This date refers to the evening of the overnight period being reported. The occupancy data is retrieved at 4:00 AM the following morning (e.g. Jan. 1st, 2024 record => data collected at 4:00 AM Jan. 2nd, 2024).2
SERVICE USER COUNT The number of service users staying in an overnight program as of the occupancy time and date. Programs with no service user occupancy will not be included in reporting for that day.2
PROGRAM ID Provides a distinct or unique ID of the program even if the program name changes.2
SECTOR A category or type of homeless shelter that is based on gender, age and household size of the service user group(s) being served at the shelter site. There are currently 5 shelter sectors in Toronto: (i) adult men, (ii) adult women, (iii) mixed adult (co-ed or all gender), (iv) youth, and (v) family.2
PROGRAM MODEL Basic classification scheme that divides the shelter program into two groups: (i) Emergency or (ii) Transitional. The Emergency program can be accessed by any individual or family experiencing homelessness with or without a referral, while the Transitional program provides required and/or specialized programming that can be accessed by eligible individuals and families experiencing homelessness by referral only.2
OVERNIGHT SERVICE TYPE The types of overnight service being provided include: (i) Shelter, (ii) 24-Hour Respite, (iii) Motel/Hotel, (iv) Interim Housing, (v) Warming Centre, (vi) 24-Hour Women’s Drop-in, and (vi) Isolation/Recovery Site.
Shelter: Supervised residential facilities that provide temporary accommodation and related support services to assist people experiencing homelessness to move into housing. Operate year-round. 24-Hour Respite: An allied shelter service which provides essential services to individuals experiencing homelessness in an environment that prioritizes ease of access to safe indoor space. Services provided include resting spaces, meals and service referrals. Operates on a 24/7 basis. Motel/Hotel: A type of shelter program that provides shelter beds/rooms through contracts with hotel and motel operators, which enables the City to expand and contract emergency shelter capacity in response to demand for services. Interim Housing: A type of shelter program that provides interim housing shelter beds through contracts with apartment spaces. Warming Centre: An allied shelter service that provides immediate safe indoor space for people during extreme cold weather alerts. Facilities vary, but often include City of Toronto buildings or community recreation centres. Services vary, depending on the facility, and may include at a minimum resting spaces, snacks and referrals to emergency shelter. Operates on a 24/7 basis for the duration of an extreme cold weather alert. 24-Hour Women’s Drop-in: A type of 24-Hour Respite Site that provides services to women and transgender or gender-non-binary people who are experiencing homelessness. Isolation/Recovery Site: Dedicated isolation and recovery programs with medical supports for people experiencing homelessness to isolate and recover from COVID-19.2
PROGRAM AREA Identifies either Base Shelter and Overnight Services system programs, or Temporary Response system programs. (i) Base Shelter and Overnight Services System: are intended to be regular, year-round programs. (ii) Base Program - Refugee: are intended to be year-round programs that serve refugee and asylum claimant families and individuals. (iii) Temporary Refugee Response: are intended to create spaces in the overnight services system in order to support refugee and asylum claimant families and individuals. (iv) COVID-19 Response: Programs that are intended to create spaces in the overnight services system in order to support improved physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic. (v) Winter Response: are intended to be exclusively dedicated to the provision of additional spaces under winter services plans. Winter service planning may also add additional capacity to existing programs classified in other program areas.2
CAPACITY TYPE Program provides either room or bed based capacity. (i) Bed Based Capacity: where occupancy is measured at the bed level and typically involve common sleeping areas. (ii)Room Based Capacity: where occupancy is measured at the room level and is typically of family programs or hotel-based programs where sleeping rooms are not shared by people from different households.2
CAPACITY ACTUAL (BED/ROOM) The number of beds or rooms showing as available for occupancy in the Shelter Management Information System (SMIS).2
CAPACITY FUNDING (BED/ROOM) The number of rooms or beds that a program has been approved to provide.2
UNAVAILABLE ROOMS/BEDS The number of beds or rooms that are not currently available in a program. This can include temporarily out-of-service beds due to maintenance, repairs, renovations, outbreaks and pest control (**NOTE: UNAVAILABLE = CAPACITY FUNDING - CAPACITY ACTUAL).2



Figure 1. Total Shelter Population within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The total number of shelter users for each recorded Occupancy Date were plotted for the period of 2021-01-01 to 2024-03-29. The number of shelter users have increased by more than 50% over this time span. These numbers are obviously an underestimate of the “true” demand for these types of service given that there are many more homeless individuals who are not accounted for by these records.



Figure 2. Shelter Population per GTA region. The total number of shelter users for each region within the GTA (i.e. Toronto, North York, Etobicoke, Scarborough, Vaughan) were plotted for the time period of 2021-01-01 to 2024-03-29. The disparity in the number of shelter users per region shows that the vast majority of shelter users today are being housed within Toronto and North York (see Table below).



Figure 3. Current Shelter Populations per GTA Region. This bar graph shows the current (2024-03-29) number of shelter occupants within each of the designated GTA regions. Toronto (68.12%) and North York (18.69%) shelter the majority of homeless people, while Scarborough (8.58%), Etobicoke (4%), and Vaughan (0.61%) collectively house less than 14% of the homeless population.



Figure 4. Homeless Population Demographics within the GTA Region. The above graph looks at the GTA homeless population through the lens of common demographic variables (e.g. gender, family status). All of the designated groups (i.e. men, women, families, Youth and Mixed adults) have been rapidly increasing in number within the shelter system over the last 3 years. However, Youth and Mixed adult populations have shown some considerable fluctuations in numbers during the latter part of this time period.



Figure 5. Homeless Population Program Model. The above graph looks at the GTA Shelter system’s designated Emergency and Transitional shelter programs. According to City of Toronto’s Housing + Homelessness Service Glossary (2019)3 the Emergency Shelter Program constitutes a homeless shelter program that individuals and families can access without a referral. By contrast a Transitonal Shelter Program constitutes a homeless shelter program that individuals and families can access only with a referral. The numbers clearly show that only about 1 out of every 10 homeless individuals that are apart of this limited data set have been able to access a referral.



Figure 6. Homeless Overnight Service Types within the GTA. The region’s homeless population can access different types of overnight services. The seven main Shelter Types are (i) Shelters, (ii) 24-Hour Respites, (iii) Motels/Hotels, (iv) Interim Housing, (v) Warming Centres, (vi) 24-Hour Women’s Drop-ins, and (vii) Isolation/Recovery Sites. Although there are additional Service Types offered, specifically (viii) Top Bunk Contingency Spaces and (ix) Alternative Space Protocol, these are ill-defined and very few in number. As of March 29th 2024 (latest numbers) the vast majority of Service Types are “reactionary” or emergency-styled Shelters (4867 of 9704, or 50.15%) and Motel/Hotel (4062 of 9704, or 41.86%) services. Unfortunately, Interim and Transitional Housing programs that ultimately lead to permanent housing are virtually non-existent.



Figure 7. Homeless Program Area within the GTA. Overnight services that deal with the region’s homeless population can be categorized as either: (i) Base Shelter, (ii) Base Program - Refugee, (iii) Temporary Refugee Response, (iv) COVID-19 Response, or (v) Winter Response. These 5 program services are obviously regular (i.e. year-round) or temporary in nature. The current refugee situation (i.e. heightened global conflicts) along with the long-term health and economic affects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to drive the growing homelessness problem within the GTA. Even the cyclic Winter Response program, which spikes during the cold season, experienced a considerable rise in service users, much more so than in previous years. This noticeable increase in the number of temporary Winter Response program users likely reflects the growing number of undocumented homeless people within the GTA that do not have access to other shelter services (i.e. “hidden homelessness”).




Figure 8 & 9. Occupancy Number at the Homes First run Delta Hotel Shelter. The two graphs above show the number of rooms at the Delta Shelter that are either occupied (Figure 8) or unoccupied (Figure 9) by a homeless person. The marginal histogram that is apart of Figure 8 shows that the plotted occupancy values fall into 2 distinct populations. These two populations of data points begin to emerge after July 22nd 2022 (i.e. July 21st = 316 residents, July 22nd = 334 residents). Current data trends suggest that a smaller Delta resident population, similar to the one that existed prior to July 22nd 2022, will likely re-emerge. The rising number of unavailable rooms at the Delta Shelter over the last 39 days (Figure 9) shows the rapidly changing dynamics of the Delta Shelter population. The plotted loess (LOcal regrESSion) fitted “smoothed” curve is a common non-parametric modelling tool used to fit a curve to a set of data points. Here the Loess model is “well defined” (i.e. residuals are constant over the full range of x values) and thus reveals a “real” overall pattern in the data (i.e. increasing rate of unavailable rooms). It is also important to note that the overnight Delta Hotel Shelter (Program ID 16011) supervised by Homes First is only one of 9 shelters and 17 supportive housing sites run by this charitable agency. Their mission statement is to “develop and provide affordable, stable housing and support services to break the cycle of homelessness for people with the fewest housing options”, particularly for a growing homeless senior (>50 yrs) population that make up a large part of their ~2,300 clients. However, despite the continued rise in the number of GTA homeless persons and the recent infusion of Federal dollars ($162 million) into its shelter system, Homes First has unilaterally decided to transition the Delta site to a refugee only shelter (i.e. no consultations with residents). Apparently, in accordance with the wishes of local Ward 22 councillor Nick Mantas, the shelter is actively trying to move or evict people from the safety of the shelter. Many have already faced punitive “service restrictions” without any appeals process. The recent updated ad hoc appeals process typically results in the clients eviction at the end of the restriction period, since this process usually takes 1 or 2 weeks. Note that during the time it takes to resolve the appeals process the client is usually forced to find accommodations elsewhere (i.e. homeless). The recent rise in the number of unavailable rooms (Fig. 9) is likely an indicator of future evictions for many non-refugee residents at the Delta shelter. Note that the number of unavailable rooms (i.e. UNAVAILABLE ROOMS = ROOMS CAPACITY FUNDING - ROOM OCCUPIED) are rooms that the service provider still has designated funding to maintain (Table 1).



REFERENCES:

1. Gaetz, S.; Barr, C.; Friesen, A.; Harris, B.; Hill, C.; Kovacs-Burns, K.; Pauly, B.; Pearce, B.; Turner, A.; Marsolais, A. (2012). Canadian Definition of Homelessness. Toronto: Canadian Observatory on Homelessness Press. www.homelesshub.ca/homelessdefinition

2. City of Toronto (2024). “About Daily Shelter & Overnight Service Occupancy & Capacity”. https://open.toronto.ca/dataset/daily-shelter-overnight-service-occupancy-capacity/

3. City of Toronto - Housing Stability Service System Overview (2019). “Housing + Homelessness Service Glossary”. https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/data-research-maps/research-reports/housing-and-homelessness-research-and-reports/housing-stability-service-system-map-and-terms/